Kenya is a lost cause. 2012 will be worse than what we saw in 2007. There are reasons to make this assertion.
The tigers of freedom of yesterday have all been compromised. Raila and his ODM have been roped in then neutered. They are part of the system, not only in name, but also in action. Unchecked Corruption is not just a PNU thing. If an ODM minister is tainted and has not been sacked, it is because the PM who is from ODM finds him a political holy cow who cannot be touched.
Kenya is a lost cause: The ghosts of post election violence have not been appeased. Those implicated in various offences have skilfully employed Parliamentary Procedures to block the setting up of Local Tribunals to try suspects. Kenyans face the prospects of approaching the next General Election (in 2012) before the victims of the last elections are appeased.
It appears that there may be no New Constitution before the 2012 Elections. The opponents of Agenda 4 are forming ethnic alliances to fit an already evolving Transition Agenda, which can only work if the current President retains his absolute powers by election day. There may be a new referendum on the Constitution, and there may be another BOMAS, but their outcomes will be different because of new Constituencies and Districts!
Even getting a credible Kenyan to chair a transitory Electoral body has become a problem because of ethnicity and transition politics.
When will Kenyan be a Nation and not a union of tribes?