Sunday, May 25, 2008

Is ODM a Party in Peril?

Are these pangs of 2012? A Hon. Namwamba insists on a core opposition in the Kenyan Parliament with ODM as its center. Hon. Odinga (the PM) says no because ODM is in Government. But is ODM really in government?
We know that Hon. Odinga is the PM in a coalition government in which Hon. Kibaki of PNU is the President. It is accurate to say that Hon. Kibaki is the government, and PNU is the government. It is also accurate to say that Hon Odinga is part of the government, and so is ODM. But who calls the shots? It is Hon. Kibaki, the one who sleeps in State House.
Is Hon. Namwamba right in agitating for an official opposition in parliament? I believe he is right because Kenya is a multiparty state. Moreover, ODM admits that it is only partly in government and has assumed a holding posture in readiness for 2012. Moreover, the key pillars in ODM are approaching the "Namwamba problem" differently as the dance for positions for 2012 begin.
Hon. Odinga reads Hon Namwamba's intentions correctly: this group is out to pull the rug from beneath the coalition government, but he is also weary of 2012---what with Hon Mudavadi and Hon Ruto maintaining a neutral stance, if not soft, on Namwamba and company.
Is this the begenning of fall-outs and reallignments for 2012?
Watch what Maasai and their South Rift friends are doing. In the upcoming June 2008 by-elections; this core ODM group is going for anybody Maasai in any party. Will the ODM center hold? Will Mudavadi and Ruto allow PM Odinga to make another shot at the Presidency in 2012?

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