IS KENYA A LOST CAUSE?

Kenya is a lost cause. 2012 will be worse than what we saw in 2007. There are reasons to make this assertion.
The tigers of freedom of yesterday have all been compromised. Raila and his ODM have been roped in then neutered. They are part of the system, not only in name, but also in action. Unchecked Corruption is not just a PNU thing. If an ODM minister is tainted and has not been sacked, it is because the PM who is from ODM finds him a political holy cow who cannot be touched.
Kenya is a lost cause: The ghosts of post election violence have not been appeased. Those implicated in various offences have skilfully employed Parliamentary Procedures to block the setting up of Local Tribunals to try suspects. Kenyans face the prospects of approaching the next General Election (in 2012) before the victims of the last elections are appeased.
It appears that there may be no New Constitution before the 2012 Elections. The opponents of Agenda 4 are forming ethnic alliances to fit an already evolving Transition Agenda, which can only work if the current President retains his absolute powers by election day. There may be a new referendum on the Constitution, and there may be another BOMAS, but their outcomes will be different because of new Constituencies and Districts!
Even getting a credible Kenyan to chair a transitory Electoral body has become a problem because of ethnicity and transition politics.
When will Kenyan be a Nation and not a union of tribes?

Is ODM a Party in Peril?

Are these pangs of 2012? A Hon. Namwamba insists on a core opposition in the Kenyan Parliament with ODM as its center. Hon. Odinga (the PM) says no because ODM is in Government. But is ODM really in government?
We know that Hon. Odinga is the PM in a coalition government in which Hon. Kibaki of PNU is the President. It is accurate to say that Hon. Kibaki is the government, and PNU is the government. It is also accurate to say that Hon Odinga is part of the government, and so is ODM. But who calls the shots? It is Hon. Kibaki, the one who sleeps in State House.
Is Hon. Namwamba right in agitating for an official opposition in parliament? I believe he is right because Kenya is a multiparty state. Moreover, ODM admits that it is only partly in government and has assumed a holding posture in readiness for 2012. Moreover, the key pillars in ODM are approaching the "Namwamba problem" differently as the dance for positions for 2012 begin.
Hon. Odinga reads Hon Namwamba's intentions correctly: this group is out to pull the rug from beneath the coalition government, but he is also weary of 2012---what with Hon Mudavadi and Hon Ruto maintaining a neutral stance, if not soft, on Namwamba and company.
Is this the begenning of fall-outs and reallignments for 2012?
Watch what Maasai and their South Rift friends are doing. In the upcoming June 2008 by-elections; this core ODM group is going for anybody Maasai in any party. Will the ODM center hold? Will Mudavadi and Ruto allow PM Odinga to make another shot at the Presidency in 2012?